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From UMW:

Virginians are nearly evenly divided in their preferences for the upcoming legislative elections, with 40 percent favoring Democratic Party majorities in the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia next year, while 37 percent said they wanted Republican legislative majorities, according to a new statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. Among the subset of likely voters, 42 percent said they would like to see the Democrats in charge and 42 percent said they favor Republican control.

A new poll conducted for the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies surveyed Virginians’ concerns ahead of midterm elections. Photo from Pixabay.The 1,000-person poll of Virginia adults (which includes 771 likely voters) was administered by Research America Inc. Sept. 5-11.

“Virginia has rapidly returned to its purple state status,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and the Center’s director. “This new statewide survey shows that Virginia’s voters are basically evenly divided as they approach the upcoming Virginia legislative elections.”

Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents (64 percent) said Virginia public school policies would be a major factor in deciding their vote in the November legislative elections. Among Republicans, 65 percent said education policies would be a major factor. Among those who said they were Democrats, 64 percent said school policies would be a major factor in deciding their vote in the upcoming legislative elections. For independents, 64 percent said school policies would be a major factor.

The survey shows that last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade would be a significant factor in the election as well, with 53 percent of those surveyed saying the abortion decision would be a major factor for them. Seventy percent of Democrats considered abortion a major factor for them in the upcoming elections, as compared to 35 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 54 percent said the abortion ruling was a major factor as they considered how to approach the Virginia midterms.

In the survey, 23 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases and 34 percent said it should be legal in most cases. Opposition to abortion is less common: 27 percent of the survey respondents said abortion should be illegal in most cases and 8 percent said it should be illegal in all cases. These figures are nearly unchanged from preferences expressed in the September 2022 survey.

Asked about the nation’s most important problem, 21 percent of Virginians identified threats to democracy, 20 percent said inflation, 16 percent said the economy and jobs, and 10 percent said immigration.

“Virginia midterm elections are at least partially a referendum on the incumbent governor, who has served nearly half a term at that point,” Farnsworth said.

In this new survey, 40 percent of Virginians said they approved of Glenn Youngkin’s job performance, as compared to 37 percent who disapproved. The remaining respondents were unsure. Among Republicans, 74 percent thought Youngkin was doing a good job, as compared to 36 percent of independents and 16 percent of Democrats.

Youngkin’s three-point net positive assessment was down from a 15-point net-positive assessment in the September 2022 survey. But Youngkin’s 2023 evaluation remains far better than survey respondents’ evaluations of President Biden, who had a net negative 17-point rating (35 percent expressing approval, 52 percent disapproval, with the rest unsure). Among Democrats, 72 percent thought Biden was doing a good job, as compared to 30 percent of independents, and 5 percent of Republicans thought the president was doing a good job.

“Expect each political party to continue to talk past the other,” Farnsworth said. “Republicans will focus on perceived threats to parental rights in education, while Democrats will talk about what Republicans will do to further restrict abortion if they secure legislative majorities in Richmond. The very close divisions among voter preferences in this survey demonstrate that both parties are largely evenly matched in Virginia right now.”

The Virginia statewide survey did not ask about specific legislative races, because the small sample size in each district would not provide reliable estimates of local voter preferences.

Survey Information:

The University of Mary Washington’s Fall 2023 Virginia Survey was conducted by Research America Inc. during September 5 – 11, 2023.  The total sample included 1,000 Virginia residents, including 833 registered voters and 771 likely voters. Part of the sample (600) was contacted by phone (80 percent cell and 20 percent landline), and part of the sample (400) was contacted online. All interviews were in English. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies, including age, gender and race/ethnicity. The margin of error on the total sample is +/- 3.0%.  The margin of error on the Likely Voters portion of the sample is +/- 3.5%.

For further survey results, see Topline.

From UMW:

President Joe Biden (D) is tied in Virginia with former President Donald Trump (R) in a possible 2024 presidential election rematch, according to a new statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington.

Each candidate received 37 percent in the 1,000-person poll of Virginia adults, which was conducted by Research America Inc. Sept. 5-11. Other respondents said they were undecided.

Biden defeated Trump by a ten-point margin in Virginia in 2020, the latest in a string of four consecutive Democratic Electoral College wins in the commonwealth. George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to win in Virginia, and he did so in both 2000 and 2004.

If Republicans select Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their presidential nominee, he would start out as less competitive than Trump would be against Biden in Virginia. DeSantis had the support of 30 percent of those Virginians surveyed as compared to 39 percent for Biden.

Although he is not a presidential candidate, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin fared better than DeSantis against Biden in a hypothetical match-up. Youngkin received 34 percent support in the survey, as compared to 37 percent for Biden – results within the survey’s margin of error.

“Virginia looks a lot like America as a whole in this survey,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “President Biden is relatively unpopular now in Virginia and nationally, and national surveys also suggest 2024 is shaping up to be an extremely competitive election cycle.”

Virginians favored Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee, with 23 percent supporting the former president in the survey. No other candidate secured double-digit support. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had the support of 7 percent, as compared to 6 percent for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 6 percent for Youngkin and 5 percent for DeSantis.

“Virginia’s governor is doing relatively well as a potential candidate in this survey of Virginians,” Farnsworth said. “Although all the candidates remain far behind Trump, Youngkin, who is being touted by some conservatives, is doing better here than some of the candidates who are actually running for office.”

Asked about their second choice, 16 percent of respondents named DeSantis and 10 percent said Haley. Trump was a bit further back in the pack as a second-choice preference, with 8 percent identifying the former president as their alternative preference.

Taken together Trump was the first or second place choice of 31 percent of those surveyed, while DeSantis was the first or second choice of 21 percent and Haley was the first or second choice of 17 percent.

“Because Virginia does not register voters by part, any registered voter can choose to participate in a party primary,” Farnsworth said. “In addition, second place preferences are particularly important when considering the Virginia electorate, as the presidential field narrows a good deal after the early nomination states of Iowa and New Hampshire.”

When respondents who do not plan to vote in the Republican primary are excluded, 36 percent of the remaining respondents said Trump was their first choice, 11 percent said Haley and 10 percent each said Christie or Youngkin.

“Despite all the legal challenges Trump faces, Republicans in Virginia – like their counterparts outside the Commonwealth – want the former president to be the party’s standard bearer next year,” Farnsworth said.

Asked whether the former president should run as a third-party candidate if he loses the Republican nomination contest, 56 percent said he should not run and 27 percent thought he should. The rest were uncertain.

Survey Information:

The University of Mary Washington’s Fall 2023 Virginia Survey was conducted by Research America Inc. during September 5 – 11, 2023. The total sample included 1,000 Virginia residents, including 833 registered voters and 771 likely voters. Part of the sample (600) was contacted by phone (80 percent cell and 20 percent landline), and part of the sample (400) was contacted online. All interviews were in English. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies, including age, gender and race/ethnicity. The margin of error on the total sample is +/- 3.0%.  The margin of error on the Likely Voters portion of the sample is +/- 3.5%.

For more survey results, see Topline.